Pacific Basin Information Under Review for Possible Update

A review of the Pacific Basin hindcast indicates that north Pacific storms and tropical events may be over-estimated in the hindcast. For more information and sample plots click here. For example, a comparison of hindcast results at NDBC 51001 for January, 1994, shows a monthly positive significant wave height bias of 0.72m and an rms of 0.7m. A specific storm on January 16, 1994, shows an over-prediction of 1.5m (23%). Similar over-prediction occurs for other time periods at other locations. This alters the extremal statistics and may adversely impact some applications of these data. We therefore strongly suggest that you carefully review the hindcast/buoy comparisons close to your study location before using the data. We have traced the over-prediction of storm waves to over-amplification of the wind fields, used to generate the wave hindcasts, over the north Pacific. We are working on an update to these data.

While you may still access the plots of the Pacific hindcast data, we have removed online access to these data until we have updated them. In the interim, to access these data or to learn more about the hindcasts, please contact Robert Jensen at Robert.E.Jensen@usace.army.mil.

We apologize for any inconvenience this may have caused you. In the meantime, we suggest using the closest actual wave gauge data.